(All stats and standings current as of May 21st)
At the onset of every spring training, fans from nearly every MLB team try to talk themselves into a sense of optimism for the upcoming season. Each collective fan-base attempts to convince themselves that maybe this year could work. If not a pennant or division title, then maybe a wild-card berth is in reach. This year, that didn’t seem the case. With most of last year’s playoff rosters either adding talent or remaining just as loaded, there seemed to be a distinct upper-echelon of contenders coming into the season. In the American League, the Indians and Astros were clear favorites in their respective divisions. The Red Sox and Yankees would battle for the AL East with the loser hosting the wild-card game. In the NL, the Nationals, Cubs, and Dodgers were all runaway choices to achieve repeat division titles from last season.
We’re now roughly one-fourth into the season, and things are not as chalky as we presumed they would be. Let’s take a look at each preseason favorite’s position in their respective division, and assess whether or not that team need be concerned about another shot at playoff baseball. We’ll move from the teams with the least concern to those who should be smashing the panic button if they haven’t already.
AL EAST: Red Sox and Yankees
Panic Meter: 0 out of 10.
In the last 10 years the Rays, Orioles, and Blue Jays have fielded World Series contending teams at one time or another. The Blue Jays bat flipped their way to back-to-back ALCS appearances in 2015-16. The Orioles won 96 games and an AL East title in 2014 before bowing out to the Royals in the ALCS. The Rays made 4 playoff trips between 2008-2013, including a World Series trip. The Yankees and Red Sox have both won World Series during this time span, but they were consistently challenged between some historically unlikely candidates. Now, however, the past is behind us. Tradition has been restored. As of today, the Yankees and Red Sox sat tied atop the AL East with a comfortable 9 game margin between 3rd place Tampa Bay. The Blue Jays are probably due for a rebuild, and Baltimore has the 2nd worst record in the Majors. Chances are high that we will see a summer long slugfest between the Sox and Yanks, with the loser being forced into a winner-take-all Wild Card Game at season’s end.
AL Central: Cleveland Indians
Panic Meter: 3 out of 10
Early season analysis of the AL Central in two words: it stinks. Cleveland leads the division with a sub .500 record. Detroit is in 3rd despite being 20-27. The small level of panic for the Indians is directly a result of how low the bar is for them to make the postseason. This is a team that started slowly last season as well before grabbing the division lead mid-summer and then ripping off a 22-game win streak. Fangraphs still has the Indians playoff chances at roughly 90%, and it’s hard to imagine them missing out with this roster and this division.
AL West: Houston Astros
Panic Meter: 4 out of 10
The defending champs are off to a respectable 30-18 start. Jose Altuve is hitting .316, Gerrit Cole has been dynamite, and Justin Verlander doesn’t look 35 at all. Houston is the safe bet to win the West, but their margin for error is none too large with the rest of the division shaping up to be full of solid teams. The Angels have the best player in the world and the rest of their lineup is nothing to scoff at. The Mariners just lost Robby Cano but still are in 2nd place at 27-19. You probably can’t name 5 players on the A’s but they’re a respectable 25-22 and have won 7 of their last 10. The division is definitely the Astros to lose, but we could easily see the 2nd Wild Card team come from the AL West.
NL East: Washington Nationals
Panic Meter: 7 out of 10
The Nationals entered the season looking for a 3rd straight NL East crown. The Phillies were a trendy sleeper pick for a Wild Card spot, the Braves were supposed to be a couple years away from contending, the Mets are the Mets (cursed), and the Marlins were trying so hard to be terrible that it might be a crime. Turns out, the future might be now for the Baby Braves. Atlanta leads the division by a half game over the Phils, while the Mets sit in 3rd only a game back. Washington is currently 1.5 games back at 25-21. Their pitching has been in short, really good. The Nats 5 rotational starters all have ERAs under 3.40. On the other hand, Bryce Harper is hitting .224, Ryan Zimmerman has been on the DL, and Howie Kendrick just snapped his Achilles Tendon. Washington is still loaded with talent and things could be worse than 1.5 back, but a division title will be far from the cakewalk they’ve enjoyed the past two seasons.
NL Central: Chicago Cubs
Panic Meter 7 out of 10
The ChiCubs overcame a self-admitted World Series Hangover of epic proportions last year to win the NL Central. When the groggy feelings cleared, they still ended up winning the division by 6 games. This season, it looks like the NL Central is back to being one of the toughest divisions in the majors, with 4 of its 5 teams comfortably above .500. (Sorry, Cincinnati) The panic meter is a little high here, because the Brewers and Cardinals look legitimate. Offseason additions Lorenzo Cain (walking at a career high rate) and Christian Yelich have bolstered a deep Milwaukee lineup, and the Cardinals look solid across the board. The Cubbies started today in 3rd place tied with Pittsburgh, only 2.0 games out of 1st. Fangraphs still has the Cubs at 89% for the playoffs, and this lineup looks just as dominant as it has the past 4-5 seasons. Concerns come mostly from the rotation, where offseason acquisition Yu Darvish and former southsider Jose Quintana have struggled. In the end, I find it hard to imagine the Cubs missing the postseason altogether, but I would be nervous about another NL Central title.
NL West: LA Dodgers
Panic Meter: 9 out of 10
Live look at Dodger Fans:
If there’s a panic button in Dodger Stadium, it’s been mashed. Arizona has came back down to earth a bit after a hot start, and their middle infield remains pretty meh. Colorado has Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, the ghost of Carlos Gonzalez, and then a whole lot of unknown. San Francisco’s front office put together a team that would be the World Series favorite in 2013. Nevertheless, the Dodgers have lost their best position player (Corey Seager) for the season, and their second best guy (Justin Turner) has only recently started his season. Clayton Kershaw has been on the DL, and Rich Hill just got sent there. The Dodgers have caught a nasty case of the injury bug, and it’s going to be a long hill to climb up into the postseason again.
The 520 Wire 