Football is back! Those are three words millions of people across our country love to say, hear, and read. Being undoubtedly one of those people, and also being someone who pays a small fee to own a website domain, I basically feel obligated to give my thoughts on the upcoming NFL season. If you read my preview last year, the format will be mostly similar. If not, strap in for some colored but not overly complicated analysis and some predictions that will most likely be wrong.
For transparency, I went 6/12 on picking the playoff teams last season and had New Orleans winning the Super Bowl. I think my pick was pretty good considering the folks at 345 Park Ave Manhattan, NY felt so terrible about how badly the Saints got cheated that they changed the most subjective penalty in football into a reviewable decision. But nonetheless, I will try to improve upon last years fortune telling and hope none of you remember I picked the Steelers to win the AFC. Let’s get this show on the road.
AFC EAST
Winner: New England Patriots
Wild Card Team: No way
Death, Taxes, and… yeah you know where that one was going. The Patriots have won this division for nearly 15 straight years with the one exception being the 2008 Tony Sparano (RIP) Ronnie Brown Wildcat Miami Dolphins. Let me tell you, they are going to win it again this year. One of the impressive aspects that has contributed to the Patriots longevity has been their ability to go against the norm of league wide trends. They displayed this ability last year by committing to the power run game in a pass crazed league. The run game allowed them to control the pace and scoreboard during their two AFC playoff wins. This year the Patriots return the majority of the O-Line personnel on top of adding their now healthy 2018 1st-round pick Isaiah Wynn. They also possess one of deepest RB pools in the NFL with Sony Michel, rookie Damien Harris, pass catching extraordinaire James White, and adopted Nebraskan Rex Burkhead. You don’t need me to talk about their quarterback, and the re-instatement of Josh Gordon gives them a solid receiving duo alongside Julian Edelman. Defensively, the Patriots boast one of the most talented and experienced secondaries in the league.
The rest of this division is high on hope but not particularly for this year. Sometimes it’s about the long con. Tom Brady will retire eventually… right? All three of the Bills, Jets, and Dolphins enter this season with second year quarterbacks and first or second year coaches hoping to lay a foundation of what’s to come. For any of these teams, 6 or 7 wins would be a respectable finish.
AFC NORTH
Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers
Wild Card: None
This division is a crapshoot to me. To start, the Bengals are an easy cross off. The remaining three teams all have very obvious strengths that are countered by very obvious question marks. The Steelers: love the passing game even without Antonio Brown, huge questions in the secondary at both corner and safety. The Ravens: a quirky offensive style that is difficult to prepare for and an always respective defense, but can this offense really work with a whole offseason of film study now? The Browns: Love the hype and love the offseason additions, but still a lot of unknowns on the offensive line and they’re still the Browns. So, in the end I think the three of these teams beat each other up enough that only one will come out in the playoff race and I am going with the boring but historically consistent pick. Don’t make me wrong again, Big Ben. And stay away from the walking boot.
AFC South
Winner: Houston Texans
Wild Card: Indianapolis Colts
Was that a shocker on Saturday night or what? Where were you when you first read the news? I was on my couch, enjoying a Shiner Bock and thoroughly happy that a college football game was on. And then, bang. Andrew Luck is retiring!? Press conference, news cycle, millennial blaming, and yada yada ya we have a wide open AFC South.
The Colts were going to be my pick to win the AFC. Here’s the thing, this roster is loaded. O-Line, D-Line, linebacking core, receivers, secondary, the whole deal. You take away Luck… and that hurts. But I think this team is still good. So I will slot them in the Wild Card spot, but I can’t quite give them the division.
I think Houston is the safe default pick, with another year of Watson to Hopkins and hopefully an improved offensive line after April’s draft and the recent acquisition of Laremy Tunsil. Duke Johnson should be able to step in just fine for Lamar Miller, and Carlos Hyde gives them a bruiser as well. Even without Jadaveon Clowney, the combination JJ Watt, Whitney Mercilus, and Barkevious Mingo forms a formidable pass rush. Still, Bradley Roby and Jonathan Joseph is not a fearsome combo at corner. I think the Texans do just enough to eek out another division title.
The Jags and Titans are very similar teams in my view. For both of them, I really like their defense. But for both of them, I really don’t like their skill position players on offense. I think both teams will have their fair share of 21-13 losses that they kick themselves for not being able to move the ball consistently ultimately and finish around 6-10/7-9.
AFC WEST
Winner: Kansas City Chiefs
Wild Card: San Diego LA Chargers
Quick tagent: as a general rule, I try to stay away from hype trains. I do my best to let rationale thought prevail. For example, last year I slotted KC as a wild card team sighting an unproven defense and an inexperienced quarterback. Well, then, this happened. It turns out Pat is pretty dang good. Last year’s Chiefs’ season was one of the most fun I have ever had as a fan. And it wasn’t all Mahomes. With guys like Travis Kelce, Justin Houston, Chris Jones, Mitchell Schwartz, Chris Conley, and the big man himself Andy Reid, the Chiefs were full of reasons to be happy for each Sunday. After finishing with the 1 seed thanks to a tiebreaker with the Chargers, they finally broke the home playoff curse with a convincing win against the red hot Colts. And all of that made the AFC Championship game overtime loss to New England feel disappointing in such a strange way. Yes, it was such an awesome season. But how many times do you get that close? Time will tell.
Back to the present- I am going to pick the Chiefs to repeat as division champs for the 4th consecutive season. The offense should be just as loaded as last season, with the addition of Mecole Coleman provided them yet another lightning quick gadget on offense. Defensively KC has undergone a big overhaul with new DC Steve Spagnuolo and the addition of Frank Clark and Tyrann Mathieu. There is still a big question at corner opposite Kendall Fuller, and the season long injury to Breeland Speaks hurts the depth on the defensive line considerably. Nonetheless, it would be both surprising and disappointing if the Chiefs miss the postseason with this roster.
About the rest of the division. The Chargers finished 12-4 last year! They got a healthy and productive season from their offensive line, went three deep with quality receivers, and were so deep in the secondary that the basically stymied the Ravens in the Wild Card round by having 5 or 6 defensive backs on the field at all time to counter Baltimore’s unique rushing style. So what about this year? Well, Melvin Gordon is holding out, Tyrell Williams is a Raider, Russell Okung is hurt, and Derwin James will most likely play his next game in 2020. With a home friendly schedule and still a very talented defensive front, I still like the Chargers to make the postseason. I just think they will have to settle for a wild card spot again.
Denver enters the year with two new big quarterback with Joe Flacco and Drew Lock. John Elway is content. They found diamond in the rough with undrafted acquisition Phil Lindsey last season. But with Manny Sanders hurt for now, Jake Butt hurt for good, and Demaryius Thomas long gone, the skill positions as a whole are lacking for the Broncs. And really, I can’t say Joe Flacco sparks a lot of confidence after his last few seasons in Baltimore. Defensively, the big names still hang and new HC Vic Fangio should be able to scheme the Broncos into some favorable matchups. I think Denver is a pesky team all year but ultimately comes up just short of a postseason return.
Oakland… I dunno man. Pray for my dad’s patience. Chucky. Antonio Brown’s new helmet. I don’t have much else to say. I don’t see the last season on the baseball field being a good one for the silver and black.
NFC EAST
Winner: Philadelphia Eagles
Wild Card: None
The Eagles presents themselves two years removed from a Super Bowl title and one season removed from a gritty title defense. Following the infamous “double doink” win in Chicago, Philly was knocked out in the divisional round by New Orleans. By season’s end the Eagles were again relying on Nick Foles and a secondary that could be accurately described as decimated. In totality, the Eagles still retain the majority of their Super Bowl roster that propelled them in the 2017 season. If you scan the depth chart, it’s readily apparent just how solid Philly is across the board with maybe the exception of their linebacking corps. If the Eagles can get a full season from Carson Wentz, there’s no reason this team shouldn’t compete for another Super Bowl berth. The race for this division is a two horse run between them and the Cowboys, and I just like Philly more.
Dallas enters the season with a strong defense and an offense headlined by Day Prescott and the currently holding out Zeke Elliott. Although the Cowboys equally advanced to the divisional round there’s something about this offense that I think will be underwhelming this year. To put it bluntly, I don’t strongly believe in the Dak Prescott-Amari Cooper centered passing attack. I think the Cowboys will find themselves with 8-9 wins and just outside of the top 6 in the NFC.
The Giants and Redskins enter this season looking more towards the future than the present. New York eventually will turn over the reigns to Daniel Jones, whether or not Eli starts the whole season is really semantics at this point. Washington will do the same at some point with first round pick Dwayne Haskins. I don’t see either team competing for a playoff spot this season.
NFC North
Winner: Minnesota Vikings
Wild Card: Chicago Bears
The NFC North is one of the tougher divisions to figure out. The Vikings, Bears, and Packers are all viable teams in my opinion. The Lions probably not so much. Minnesota followed up their NFC title game appearance two seasons ago with a truly disappointing 2018 campaign. Although I am really, really not a Kirk Cousins fan I think this team will rebound back to a level similar to what we expected last year. A lot of it depends on the health of Dalvin Cook and of their offensive line, which was a real detriment to them last season. If those things can hold steady, I think Minnesota will end up with a home playoff game come January.
Chicago and Green Bay are in different portions of their respective competitive spectra. The Bears were surprise contenders last season when the general expectation was they would still be developing towards their peak. With a historically great defense and a tricky offense under Matt Nagy, Chicago won 12 games. This season their schedule will be considerably more challenging with contests against the Saints, Rams, Chiefs, Chargers, Eagles, and Cowboys. Additionally, the defense has been handed over to Chuck Pagano with Vic Fangio’s departure to Denver. I still like the Bears, and I like the odds on Mitch Trubisky continuing to improve with talented players like Anthony Miller, Allen Robinson, and Trey Burton around him. I just think they will fall short of a division title and instead will slot in a Wild Card spot.
Green Bay is a difficult team for me to peg. As opposed to the Bears, the Packers are doing everything they can to extend their competitive window while their generationally talented quarterback is still producing at a high level. In the last two seasons though, it had become clear that the “Aaron Rodgers” and figure the rest out approach had run its course. Mike McCarthy is gone, and in his stead is first time HC Matt LaFleur. LaFleur has been a trendy name in offensive circles for some time, but in reality he oversaw some pretty mediocre results while in Tennessee. On the flip side, unless you are a dedicated Packer fan I imagine it’s difficult for you to describe much of Green Bay’s defensive personnel. It’s easy to fall into the mindset of thinking the Packers will be good because they basically always are, but I’m just not sold this season.
NFC South
Winner: Atlanta Falcons
Wild Card: New Orleans Saints
So here’s the most consistently difficult division to pick. For the better part of this century, Atlanta, New Orleans, and Carolina have been championship contenders. You can regularly count on at least two of these teams making the postseason, and in 2017 all three of them made it. I’m predicting a bounce back year for the Falcons coupled with a gut feeling I have that the Saints might have missed their window coming up just barely short in the last two seasons. Atlanta played the majority of the 2018 season with arguably their best 3 defensive players in Dion Jones, Keanu Neale, and Ricardo Allen. Despite going 7-9, Matt Ryan turned in one of his best statistical campaigns with the help of one of the league’s top passing catching units. Admittedly, I have always had a soft spot for the Falcons for whatever reason, but I think this team is really good and will return to a form similar to what we saw in 2016.
New Orleans has had some serious heartbreak the past two winters. Between the Minneapolis Miracle and the infamous no call against the Rams, this is a team that certainly feels like it should have played for a Super Bowl. Although in general I think momentum of lack thereof rarely carries from one season to the next, there’s just a feeling I have that the Saints will get off to a bit of a slow start this season. Contributing to that feeling is the fact that their first four games are against the Texans, Rams, Seahawks, and Cowboys. I still think this is a solid team and the front office has done a great job of surrounding Brees with a team that fits his aging skill set. If the Saints make the playoffs, the will be dangerous as ever, I just think it will be from a Wild Card position this season.
At the halfway point last fall Carolina was a respectable 6-2 and looked to be in prime position to push the Saints for the division and at worse finish with a wild card berth. Then the proverbial bottom fell out of the barrel and the team lost 7 straight. Former MVP Cam Newton enters this season on a pitch count of sorts, as his much maligned shoulder is either not yet back to 100% or perhaps never will be. And outside of that, the same regular questions remain for this team. Who’s their best receiver? What is the plan with the secondary post Josh Norman? I think Ron Rivera is great at inspiring confidence in his players, and ultimately I would not be suprised if the Panthers put things together and make a postseason appearance. I just won’t pick it here.
I don’t have a lot to say about Tampa other than as long as Famous Jameis is their QB then I don’t buy it. Bruce Arians is a cool dude and it takes guts to wear those hats but there have been so many seasons where the Bucs were the trendy “sleeper” team and it has never ever panned out.
NFC WEST
Winner: Los Angeles Rams
Wild Card: None (but probably Seattle)
Last year’s runner up enters the 2019 season with most of the roster still intact. The biggest question mark is their supremely talented workhorse running back, Todd Gurley. The plan for the Rams is to manage his touches throughout the year in attempt to make sure he and his slowly deteriorating knees are healthy come playoff time. And here’s the thing, the Rams are going to make the playoffs. This is a team with good players, good coaches, and a lot of motivation to follow up a disappointing Super Bowl loss. I like them to clinch a 3rd straight NFC West crown.
I made the mistake of picking the Seahawks to miss the playoffs last year and I am willing to make the same mistake again this season. Russell Wilson absolutely carried this offense last season, and I know he is capable of doing the same again. The rest of this offense just does not inspire much confidence in me, especially with the retirement of Doug Baldwin. Defensively the Seahawks made a big push up front by trading for Jadeveon Clowney and drafting L.J. Collier with their first round pick. They still have Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright. And they still have Pete Carroll. I can’t imagine a scenario where the Carroll-Wilson-Wagner version of the Seahawks finishes worse the 8-8 or 9-7, but much like the Cowboys I think they just barely miss the postseason.
There’s a lot of hype around the 49ers this season, sort of like the NFC version of the Browns. I just don’t see it yet. As much as I like what Jimmy G has shown in his limited action, we still have not seen a full season from him. Tevin Coleman is a nice offseason addition, as are Dee Ford and Jason Verrett on the other side of the ball. I can see the niners improving on their 4-12 finish from last season, but I don’t see a playoff berth.
Arizona is not going to be good this year. I could get some $30-40 tickets for the home opener against Detroit on Seat Geek right now, so they excitement in Phoenix is pretty stinking low. They could be interesting, I guess. We will see how the Air Raid looks in the NFL with Kliff Kingsbury and dynamic rookie Kyler Murray. But in total this roster is a long ways from competing, even more so on the defensive side. I expect the Cardinals to be picking towards the top of the draft again next April.
Recap:
AFC Division Winners: New England, Pittsburgh, Houston, Kansas City
AFC Wild Card: Indianapolis, LA Chargers
NFC Division Winners: Philadelphia, Minnesota, Atlanta, LA Rams
NFC Wild Card: Chicago, New Orleans
Super Bowl: Kansas City over Philadelphia
The 520 Wire 